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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Hillary three winding roads to the Presidency

Hillary Clinton still has open opportunities to become President, but these require moving along roads that are narrow, winding, unsafe, and each one carries different probabilities of success. Her continued campaign moves her on a path designed to keep her options open. Two of the roads collide with Obama's plans, the third may be aligned with his. Wisely, she will not take a turn prematurely, lest it brings her to a dead end. Conceding to Obama right now, she fears, will do just that.

The first road to the White House is one with diminishing chances of success. It is her original Plan A modified to account for Obama's overwhelming lead in every metric - elected delegates, super delegates, total delegates, won states, and popular votes. The narrow road is based on the slim chance that her victories and convictions, some say delusions, may convince the superdelegates to hand her the nomination. While campaigning in West Virginia she reminded everyone that Kennedy came to the convention without a delegate majority, hint, hint. While Obama is considered the likely nominee, her West Virginia victory and expected upcoming victories may only increase her appetite and persuasion that she deserves the nomination. To ensure that she will not be branded as the election spoiler she now needs to pursue her goal without hurting Obama chances in November. Indeed it is a very narrow road but Hillary is a master in choosing words, altering her message, and playing the survival game. Still, chances are that she will have to rely on her other options.

The second road to the White House is longer, no less winding, but definitely more traitorous. It is the famous "Plan B" - to concede the nomination to Obama, give him tacit support, let him run and fail, and then run again in 2012 when the country will finally get tired of Republican administrations. Expect Hillary to use her prominent Senate seat to derail McCain's Presidency. This road is fraught with risks, and Hillary must carefully act behind the scenes in ways that would not reveal her disinterest in Obama's success or interest in derailing McCain. The Plan B road is so traitorous that while recognized by media pundits, no prominent observer adopted it as their working theory.

The last road to the White House is perhaps the longest, but it yields interesting opportunities. This Plan C is called the Dream Ticket by many Democrats who wish the two strong candidates who share similar plans will come together. From Obama's point of view, the dream ticket brings Hillary out of the Senate where she can derail his plans and into the Naval Observatory where he can better control her. For Hillary, the Vice Presidency brings the tempting opportunity to become President should anything happen to Obama, and a second opportunity to run in 2016. This succession hope may align her interests with his, and she may campaign on his behalf more vigorously than otherwise. In his last term Hillary's self interest would be to help Obama succeed so that the country would be willing to vote for another Democrat. While this road is not the shortest, if all other options fail it may turn out to be the safest.

Hillary, the ever calculating politician, wants to keep her options open. She continues campaigning and walking the path that can lead her to any of these roads. She may not yet know which road she will take, but she certainly knows which destination she wants.